Which four teams will make the playoffs cut for IPL 2023? After 56 league stage matches, all ten teams are still mathematically in the running for a top 4 berth.
With 14 matches left to play in the league stage of IPL 2023, there remain nearly 16,400 possible combinations of results. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs.
As things stand, two teams are almost certain to make the playoffs, one or the other is a strong favourite to do so, a fourth team has a better-than-even chance and none of the others is as yet out and many of them can tie for the top spot.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the number crunching to determine how the teams stand as of Friday, May 12, morning:
1. GT are already certain to finish in one of the top three slots in terms of points. The lowest they can finish is tied third and their chances of being sole leader are now 80%. It is however still theoretically possible that they miss out on NRR after finishing in a tie with more than one other team for the third spot but there’s just a 0.4% chance of that happening
2. CSK’s already high chances of making it to the top four on points have now reached 99.3% with 16,262 of the remaining 16,384 combinations of results putting them in that bracket either singly or jointly
3. With their win on Thursday, RR have moved into third place, and dramatically improved their chances of making the top four on points to 56.3% or better than even, though once again that includes scenarios where they’re tied for the fourth spot
4. Though currently in fourth place, MI’s chances of making the top four on points are better at 75.3% or a just little better than three in four, thanks to the extra game in hand, though this includes situations in which NRR could come into play
5. In fifth spot currently, LSG are more likely than not to miss out with a 43.7% chance of getting into the top four and even that includes scenarios in which they are only joint fourth, some of them with multiple teams
6. RCB are currently placed sixth and their chances of finishing in the top four are 35.4% and even this includes situations of teams tied on points for the last spot
7. KKR are now in seventh spot after their loss on Thursday, and their chances of finishing in the top four in terms of points, either singly or jointly, have dipped sharply to 15.1% or less than one in seven. The best they can hope for is third spot
8. PBKS, now in eight place, have like RCB just a little more than a one in three chance of finishing among the top four on points – singly or jointly. To be precise they have a 35% chance of achieving that
9. Ninth placed SRH have less than a one in four (23.1%) chance of finishing among the top four on points, but this tournament has been so even that they can still finish tied for the top spot if they win all their remaining games
10. Languishing at or near the bottom for most of the tournament, DC can still make it to the playoffs but their chances of making the top four are no more than 6.9%. Even if they win all their remaining matches, they can at best tie for third or fourth spot and most of those involve multiple teams
How we calculate these probabilities:
We look at all 16,384 possible combinations of results with 14 IPL 2023 matches remaining. We assume that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then look at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. For example, of the 16,384 possible result combinations, DC finishes in the top four in just 1,125 of them. That translates to a 6.9% chance of making the top four on points. We do not consider net run rates or no results (NR) because predicting those in advance is impossible.
